Prediction Markets in the
United Kingdom

Where UK law sits on prediction markets

Prediction markets sit between financial derivatives (FCA) and betting (Gambling Commission). No operator currently holds a UK licence — UK users typically access international platforms, with on-chain venues like Polymarket reachable via crypto wallets.

Compare platforms accessible to UK users

How prediction markets reached UK users

The UK has no domestic licensed prediction market operator. Historically, UK users participated through overseas platforms — Intrade in the 2000s, then Polymarket and Manifold once on-chain venues emerged. The Gambling Commission and Financial Conduct Authority have both signalled that event contracts could fall under their remits, but neither has issued a clear licensing pathway. The October 2025 announcement that Intercontinental Exchange would invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket has increased pressure on UK regulators to clarify how event contracts should be treated, but as of April 2026 nothing has formally changed and UK users remain in a grey zone, accessing offshore venues at their own risk.

How HMRC treats prediction market winnings

UK tax treatment of prediction markets depends on classification. If HMRC views winnings as gambling proceeds, they are tax-free for UK individuals — the long-standing UK rule that betting winnings are not taxable. If HMRC instead classifies event contracts as financial derivatives, gains could fall under capital gains tax (currently with an annual allowance of £3,000) or, for frequent traders, potentially income tax. There is no formal HMRC guidance specific to prediction markets yet. UK users should keep detailed records and consider speaking to a tax adviser, especially when trading sizable positions.

What UK traders should watch