Compare US
Prediction Market Platforms
Not sure which platform is right for you? These head-to-head guides break down fees, regulation, liquidity, categories, and US access so you can choose without guessing.
Head-to-head guides
Kalshi vs Polymarket
The two dominant US prediction market names: CFTC regulation vs global on-chain liquidity, USD vs USDC, sports contracts vs depth.
For beginnersKalshi vs Manifold
Real-money regulated trading vs free play-money forecasting. The best path for new US users explained.
Sports fansRobinhood vs Polymarket
Available now vs waitlisted: Robinhood has sports contracts, Polymarket has the deepest global orderbooks.
Broker vs directKalshi vs Robinhood
Direct exchange access vs Robinhood's embedded contracts — fees, sports, API, and whether you need both.
One app vs twoRobinhood vs Kalshi
Same Kalshi orderbooks, different interface. When is the embedded broker the right call?
US politicsKalshi vs PredictIt
Both US-regulated and politics-focused, but different in fees, contract caps, and regulatory stability.
Both CFTC-licensedKalshi vs ForecastEx
Two CFTC-regulated DCMs: Kalshi is standalone, ForecastEx lives inside your existing broker.
Economics focusKalshi vs Webull
Webull's Kalshi integration covers economics only — when is the embedded route enough?
InstitutionalKalshi vs Interactive Brokers
Standalone prediction market exchange vs IBKR's ForecastEx integration for professional traders.
USD vs USDCKalshi vs Coinbase
CFTC-regulated USD settlement vs USDC on Base, which is right for crypto-native US users?
Real vs sweepstakesKalshi vs Verse
CFTC-regulated exchange vs sweepstakes parlay app: the fee structure difference explained.
Real vs play moneyPolymarket vs Manifold
Real-money USDC on the most liquid platform vs free play-money with user-created markets.
On-chainPolymarket vs Drift Bet
Two on-chain prediction markets compared: Polygon vs Solana, fees, liquidity, and US access.
Forecasting toolsManifold vs Metaculus
Two community forecasting platforms: Manifold uses play-money, Metaculus uses reputation scores.
PoliticsManifold vs PredictIt
Free community forecasting vs real-money US political markets with $850-per-contract cap.
New usersRobinhood vs Manifold
The two-step journey for new US prediction market traders: start free on Manifold, graduate to Robinhood.
Sports exchangesNovig vs ProphetX
Two peer-to-peer sports betting exchanges: Novig's $75M Series B vs ProphetX.
Sports tradingNovig vs Kalshi
P2P sports exchange vs CFTC prediction market: sharp bettors vs full market breadth.
Crypto-nativeCrypto.com vs Coinbase
Two crypto giants in prediction markets: who does it better for US users in 2026?
Casual sportsPrizePicks vs Verse
DFS over/under picks vs sweepstakes parlay app: two casual sports prediction platforms compared.
US politicsPolymarket vs PredictIt
USDC global liquidity vs USD with $850 cap, which is better for US political prediction market traders?
US politicsRobinhood vs PredictIt
Robinhood's no-cap political contracts vs PredictIt's deeper congressional and state-level catalog.
DeFi vs regulatedKalshi vs Drift Bet
CFTC-regulated USD exchange vs on-chain Solana DeFi protocol: US access, KYC, and settlement compared.
vs SportsbookKalshi vs FanDuel
CFTC-regulated event contracts vs state-licensed sportsbook: fees, bet types, tax treatment, and legal difference.
vs Sportsbook + DFSKalshi vs DraftKings
Prediction market binary contracts vs DraftKings sportsbook and DFS: spreads, parlays, and the 2026 OBBBA tax difference.
Sportsbook vs PMFanDuel vs Polymarket
FanDuel spreads and props vs Polymarket binary global markets: USD vs USDC, vig vs taker fee, when to use each.
DFS + SportsbookDraftKings vs Polymarket
DraftKings DFS and sportsbook vs Polymarket QCEX: two platforms for analytically-minded sports fans compared.
Which platform for which use case?
Kalshi
Fully CFTC-regulated, USD settlement, sports + economics + politics, available to all US residents today. No crypto wallet needed.
Full Kalshi profile →Polymarket
$8B+ lifetime volume, deepest orderbooks on political and geopolitical markets. US licensed app rolling out via waitlist 2026.
Full Polymarket profile →Manifold
Free play-money, no crypto, user-created markets on any topic. The best way to learn forecasting without financial risk.
Full Manifold profile →ForecastEx
Zero extra friction: political and economic event contracts inside your existing brokerage account.
Full ForecastEx profile →Iowa Electronic Markets
Founded 1988, oldest real-money prediction market in the world. US politics only, $500 cap. Academic heritage.
Full IEM profile →Drift Bet
Solana-based, USDC settlement, no KYC. Lowest fees of any on-chain venue. Best for users already in the Solana ecosystem.
Full Drift Bet profile →How much does it cost to trade $1,000?
Fees are often hidden in spreads or only charged on winning trades. Here's what a $1,000 position at a 50¢ market price actually costs across major platforms.
| Platform | Fee model | $1,000 trade example | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0–7% of net profit | ~$0–70 per trade (only charged on winning side) | No fee if you lose. Fee is deducted from profit, not from stake. |
| Polymarket | ~2% taker fee | ~$20 per $1,000 trade | Taker fee charged on each buy/sell regardless of outcome. |
| Robinhood | $0.01 + $0.01 per contract | ~$40 per $1,000 trade (2,000 contracts × $0.02) | Fixed per-contract cost regardless of outcome. 2,000 contracts at 50¢ = 2,000 × $0.02. |
| ForecastEx / IB | No commission | $0 commission | Revenue from the bid-ask spread. No explicit per-trade fee. |
| Drift Bet | ~1–2% taker fee | ~$10–20 per $1,000 trade | On-chain venue; also pay Solana network gas (~$0.001/tx, negligible). |
| Novig | Commission-free | $0 commission | P2P exchange: revenue model is still evolving post-Series B. |
| Manifold | Free / 5% cashout fee | $0 to trade; $50 cashout fee on $1,000 withdrawal | Play-money is free. Real sweepcash: 5% fee only when cashing out, not per trade. |
⚠ Assumes 2,000 YES contracts at $0.50 each for the per-contract model. Actual costs vary by market type, trade size, and spread. Kalshi fee rates differ by contract category. Always verify current fees directly with each platform before trading.