Prediction Markets
News
CFTC rulings, platform launches, funding rounds, and regulatory shifts: everything that moves the US prediction market landscape.
Recent updates
Google Bans Prediction-Market Ads in Ohio — Second State After Nevada, and Regulators Weren't Told First
Google updated its US prediction-markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction-market contracts in Ohio, effective June 2, 2026. Ohio joins Nevada as the only states excluded since Google opened the category in January. The Ohio Casino Control Commission says it did not request the ban — adding a new, private-sector front to a fight that has so far run through courts and statehouses.
Read more →Kalshi Scrubs 'Bookmaking' and 'Sports Betting' From Its USPTO Filings — the Vocabulary Is Now a Legal Strategy
Kalshi's May trademark filings replaced the gambling terminology of its November 2025 USPTO submissions — which described 'bookmaking services' and 'sports betting and gambling tournaments' — with 'prediction market services' and 'trades and wagers.' The reframing lands while six state preemption suits, a pending CFTC rule, and a Congressional insider-trading probe all turn on exactly one question: is this product a financial instrument or a bet?
Read more →The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7B Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets, and a SEON survey puts prediction markets second only to licensed sportsbooks as the preferred way to bet the tournament.
Read more →DraftKings Predictions Hits $1.3B Annualized Consumer Volume in May; Railbird DCM and Combos Reshape the Competitive Field
DraftKings reported in an 8-K filing on June 9, 2026 that DraftKings Predictions ran $1.3 billion in annualized consumer volume in May, +24% month-over-month, with $3.1 billion in annualized total volume. The company is investing $200-300 million in prediction markets in 2026 and will launch its own DCM (Railbird), in-house exchange technology, and a Super App before year-end.
Read more →Polymarket Completes First Block Trade — Six-Figure FalconX/Anera Labs Hedge on Nvidia H100 GPU Pricing
Polymarket cleared its first institutional block trade on June 2, 2026 — a six-figure position between digital-asset brokerage FalconX and AI-risk startup Anera Labs on the Ornn Compute Price Index tracking Nvidia H100 rental rates. FalconX has signed on as dedicated market maker for future blocks. Polymarket lagged Kalshi by a month on this milestone but claims the first on-chain institutional prediction-market trade.
Read more →CFTC Files Federal Suit Against Rhode Island to Block Neronha Prosecution; Sixth State in Active Federal Preemption Litigation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a complaint in the US District Court for the District of Rhode Island on May 29, 2026, three days after Kalshi's own federal counter-suit, asking the court to declare Rhode Island's gambling laws preempted as applied to CFTC-licensed event contracts. Chairman Michael Selig framed the state lawsuits as an "onslaught" attempting a "power grab."
Read more →Kalshi Launches Crypto Perpetual Futures, Becomes First Federally Regulated US Perps Venue
Kalshi announced on May 29, 2026 that it will list perpetual futures contracts on its CFTC-regulated exchange, starting with crypto perps. The company claims it is the first US firm in history to offer perpetual futures under federal regulation, putting it in direct competition with offshore venues like Binance, Bybit, and OKX.
Read more →CFTC's Proposed Prediction-Markets Rule Reaches White House OMB Review; Trump Posts Public Support
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a formal proposed rule for prediction-market regulation to the White House Office of Management and Budget on May 26, 2026. President Trump posted explicit support on social media, framing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction as critical infrastructure for the industry.
Read more →Rhode Island AG Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Sports Contracts; Kalshi Files Federal Counter-Suit the Same Day
Rhode Island Attorney General Peter F. Neronha filed state-court actions in Providence last week alleging Kalshi and Polymarket sports event contracts are illegal sports betting under RI law. Kalshi responded the same day with a federal preemption suit in the US District Court for Rhode Island.
Read more →Spain Initiates Disciplinary Proceedings Against Polymarket and Kalshi; Third Country to Block in 10 Days
Spain's gaming regulator ordered ISPs to block Polymarket and Kalshi access on May 26, 2026, opening formal disciplinary proceedings against both platforms for offering unlicensed betting products. Spain joins India and Indonesia in a coordinated 10-day wave of international blocking actions.
Read more →The CFTC Has Now Sued Five States Over Prediction Markets; Monthly Volume Has Hit $20 Billion
In 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal preemption suits against Arizona, Illinois, Connecticut, New York and Minnesota in defense of its exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-licensed event-contract exchanges. Monthly platform volume has grown from $1.2B in early 2025 to over $20B today.
Read more →House Oversight Opens Formal Insider-Trading Probe Into Kalshi and Polymarket
Chairman James Comer sent document-demand letters to the CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket on May 22, with a June 5 deadline, and signaled forthcoming legislation that would bar members of Congress, administration officials, and federal employees from trading prediction-market contracts.
Read more →India Blocks Polymarket Under New Online Gaming Act; Kalshi Order Reportedly Imminent
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has ordered ISPs to cut access to Polymarket, classifying event contracts as "online money gaming" under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025. A similar order targeting Kalshi is reportedly being prepared.
Read more →Minnesota Becomes First US State to Criminalize Prediction Markets; CFTC Sues to Block the Law
Governor Tim Walz signed SF 4760 on May 19, 2026, making it a felony for prediction market operators to serve Minnesota residents starting August 1. The CFTC filed suit in federal district court the next day, arguing the law is preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act.
Read more →Governors Hochul and Pritzker Issue Executive Orders Banning Insider Trading on Prediction Markets
New York and Illinois governors issued the first US executive orders specifically targeting prediction market insider trading by state employees, prohibiting officials from using non-public government information to trade event contracts.
Read more →Study Finds $143M in Polymarket Insider Trading; Kalshi Fines Candidates and Issues $2.2M Refund
A law school study flagged $143 million in suspected insider-trading profits on Polymarket over two years and over 200,000 suspicious trades. Separately, Kalshi fined three political candidates who bet on their own races and issued $2.2M in refunds after a disputed Khamenei market.
Read more →Wisconsin AG Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed suit in state court seeking permanent injunctions against all five major US prediction market platforms, arguing event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling under state law regardless of federal CFTC licensing.
Read more →Fort Bragg Soldier Arrested for Polymarket Insider Trading as Trump Calls Markets a Casino
Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for using classified intelligence about the Maduro operation to earn $400,000+ on Polymarket. Hours later, President Trump publicly opposed prediction market expansion, calling the world "something of a casino."
Read more →Novig Raises $75M Series B to Pursue Nationwide Sports Exchange Licence
The commission-free sports prediction exchange raised $75M in a Series B round and filed for a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence that would unlock all 50 US states.
Read more →Myriad Markets Raises $20M Series A and Integrates Trust Wallet
The publisher-embedded prediction market SDK closed a $20M Series A and added Trust Wallet integration, giving millions of mobile crypto users direct access to its markets.
Read more →Robinhood Becomes Fastest-Growing Prediction Market With 12B+ Contracts in 2025
Robinhood processed over 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and acquired MIAXdx to build its own CFTC-licensed exchange, positioning it to compete directly with Kalshi and ForecastEx.
Read more →Polymarket Acquires QCEX CFTC Licence for US Relaunch, ICE Takes $2B Stake
Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market, to power a compliant US product, and secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE owner).
Read more →CFTC Drops Enforcement Case Against Kalshi Sports Markets
The CFTC ended its legal challenge to Kalshi's sports event contracts, confirming Kalshi can offer sports outcomes as regulated event contracts under its DCM licence. A landmark ruling for regulated prediction markets.
Read more →Why we cover prediction market news
Regulation changes fast
CFTC rulings, court decisions, and DCM licence approvals directly affect which platforms you can use in your state and what products are available.
Fees and liquidity shift
Platform funding rounds, acquisitions, and exchange integrations affect the depth of markets and the cost of trading. Knowing the landscape helps you find best prices.
New markets open up
Sports, politics, crypto, economics: the range of tradable outcomes expands as platforms earn regulatory approvals and build out their market listings.