DICE ETF Launches on Cboe Giving Retail Investors Pre-IPO Access to Kalshi and Polymarket
Tema ETFs launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (ticker: DICE) on the Cboe exchange on September 9 — the first ETF to offer direct exposure to both Kalshi and Polymarket before either company goes public. Kalshi and Polymarket together account for 15% of DICE's portfolio, each at approximately 7.3%, accessed through a special purpose vehicle that holds stakes in the private companies. The fund also holds publicly traded Robinhood Markets and Coinbase. DICE carries a 0.75% expense ratio. Tema's president cites the Bernstein projection that prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion annually by 2030.
Tema ETFs launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (ticker: DICE) on the Cboe BZX Exchange on September 9, 2026 — becoming the first exchange-traded fund to offer retail investors direct exposure to both Kalshi and Polymarket while neither company is publicly traded. Kalshi and Polymarket together account for approximately 15% of DICE's total assets, with each platform allocated roughly 7.3% of the fund. Because neither company has completed an IPO, Tema accesses the private-company stakes through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) — a legal structure that holds the private equity and allows the ETF to reference it without requiring the underlying companies to be publicly listed. The remaining 85% of the fund consists of publicly traded companies in the trading and digital-asset ecosystem, including Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Coinbase Global (COIN). The fund carries a gross expense ratio of 75 basis points (0.75%).
The SPV structure that gives DICE access to private Kalshi and Polymarket stakes is the same mechanism used by other ETFs that hold pre-IPO companies — the fund manager negotiates secondary-market access to private shares or restricted equity interests, packages them into a vehicle, and references the vehicle within the ETF portfolio. This allows retail investors to gain economic exposure to companies they could not otherwise access before an IPO. The structure is not without limitations: the SPV's value is not continuously mark-to-market against a liquid market for the underlying shares, which can create valuation lag and premium/discount dynamics in the ETF that are more pronounced than in funds holding publicly traded securities. For investors who believe Kalshi or Polymarket will IPO at significantly higher valuations than current private-market prices — Polymarket was last valued at approximately $1.5 billion privately; Kalshi has been valued at higher figures in secondary markets — DICE offers an accessible route to that upside without requiring access to private placement.
Tema President Steve Munroe cited the Bernstein Research projection that prediction market annual volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030 as the thesis underlying the fund — a figure the week's $14.1 billion in combined Kalshi-Polymarket weekly volume, if annualized, would approach within two to three years. The fund is positioned as a bet on prediction market infrastructure: both the private companies operating the markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the publicly traded companies whose businesses are partially or substantially tied to the sector's growth (Robinhood, which holds Robinhood Rothera, its prediction markets unit; Coinbase, which operates Coinbase Predictions and is named as a co-defendant in the Baltimore lawsuit). The ETF launch comes at a moment when the sector is generating record volumes — $14.1 billion in NFL kickoff week — while simultaneously facing its most consequential legal challenges: Ninth Circuit en banc petition, two SCOTUS cert petitions, a Massachusetts SJC decision pending, and ongoing state enforcement actions in multiple jurisdictions.
The DICE launch is a market structure signal as much as a product. ETF issuers typically build products when they expect sustained institutional and retail demand for an exposure, not when they expect it to decline. The decision to launch DICE in September 2026 — during the NFL season, as multiple SCOTUS petitions accumulate and a Bernstein $1T volume projection circulates — reflects a bet that the prediction market sector will survive its current legal challenges and continue growing toward the scale its platform operators are projecting. The 15% private-company allocation is DICE's highest-conviction position; the Robinhood and Coinbase holdings provide liquidity and publicly-priced anchoring for the rest of the portfolio. Whether the fund generates significant AUM will depend on how the legal landscape resolves: a favorable SCOTUS ruling for platforms would likely accelerate both platform growth and DICE's private-company holdings' valuation. An adverse ruling that restricts sports contracts across multiple states would create meaningful headwinds for the private-company positions even if the publicly traded holdings (Robinhood, Coinbase) survive through their diversified businesses.
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Recent updates
Kalshi Suspends Congressional Candidate for Trading on Own Race — Senate Already Banned Members
Kalshi disclosed on August 31 that it suspended North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for three years and fined her $2,589 for trading on her own race — the first publicly known enforcement action against a candidate for prediction market insider trading. Kalshi said it found multiple politicians trading on races they were involved in, including former Congressman George Santos. The Senate had unanimously banned its members and staffers from prediction market trading on April 30. CNN published a major feature on September 24 documenting election officials' concerns about disinformation and insider trading risk from prediction markets as the midterms approach.
Pew Research: Prediction Market Volume Doubled May-July, Sports Now Largest Category
A Pew Research Center analysis published September 23 found that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from May to July 2026 — rising from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July — driven primarily by sports contracts. Sports is now the largest trading category on both platforms. During the FIFA World Cup in June and July, Kalshi's monthly sports volume reached $58 billion. Over the same period, Americans wagered roughly $40 billion at licensed sportsbooks — suggesting prediction market sports volume has approached or exceeded licensed sports betting in dollar terms.
Democrats Now 60% Senate, 90% House Favorites on Prediction Markets — Biggest Shift Since 2024
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved decisively toward Democratic control of both congressional chambers in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are priced at approximately 60% to win Senate control (Republicans 40%) and roughly 90% to win House control as of September 21. Republicans had been at 80%+ in Senate control markets when the market opened in November 2024. The shift began in February 2026 following the Iran war and has accelerated through fall as rising gas prices pushed Trump's approval ratings lower. More than 500 active midterm markets are live across Kalshi and Polymarket combined.