Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+
Prediction markets featured prominently in Q2 2026 earnings reports from DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter. DraftKings' prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion to $11 billion in annualized volume between April and July, with CEO Jason Robins expecting 'millions' of users by NFL season. Robinhood's Rothera generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth in prediction market revenue, surpassing $100 million annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.
Four publicly traded companies — DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter — reported meaningful prediction market revenue in their second quarter 2026 earnings calls, the first earnings cycle in which prediction markets appeared as a distinct line item or business unit for all four simultaneously. The numbers in aggregate describe a category that has moved from novelty to material contributor faster than any comparable segment in recent financial services history. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told CNBC that annualized total volume on the company's prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion by July — a nearly fivefold increase in three months — since launching in December 2025. 'We had over 600,000 customers so far engaged with our predictions offering, and that's just going to explode this NFL season. I'm expecting millions,' Robins said. Robinhood's Rothera exchange, launched in June as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in the second quarter and has traded over 3.5 billion contracts to date, capturing approximately 7-8% of total market share among CFTC-regulated venues within two months of launch. Coinbase reported prediction market revenue growth of 106% quarter over quarter, with annualized Q2 revenue from the segment surpassing $100 million, though KeyBanc analysts noted the run rate came in below their estimates.
The most analytically striking data point in the DraftKings earnings was not the volume number but the customer overlap figure. Robins said that internal data shows only around 1% of DraftKings sportsbook customers also use the largest prediction market operator in states where sports betting is legal. His interpretation: prediction markets are driving 'a fundamentally different and largely professional audience,' with 80-90% of prediction market consumer volume coming from betting syndicates and institutional traders. If the overlap data is accurate, prediction markets and sports betting are not in direct competition for the same retail dollars — they are attracting a different type of participant altogether. That finding, if it holds at scale, has significant implications for the state-level regulatory debate: eleven state attorneys general have sued on the premise that prediction markets are a substitute for state-licensed sports betting. A 1% customer overlap does not obviously describe substitutes. Robins also noted that DraftKings' position owning three market layers simultaneously — brokerage, exchange, and market maker — gives it structural advantages that pure-play prediction market operators do not have.
Flutter's announcement that FanDuel Predicts will move its sports and novelty contracts from CME to Crypto.com is a significant infrastructure signal. The CME Group is one of the world's largest and oldest futures exchanges; Flutter launched FanDuel Predicts on CME in December 2025. Moving the sports and novelty book to Crypto.com — which holds its own CFTC-regulated designated contract market licence — while keeping financial contracts on CME implies that crypto-native CFTC exchanges are better suited to the speed and product design requirements of sports event contracts than traditional derivatives infrastructure. CEO Peter Jackson, who is departing in favor of Flutter's international division head Dan Taylor, said on the call that the migration would 'ensure we can deliver new products at pace ahead of the NFL season start.' Jackson also described FanDuel Predicts' state regulatory advantage directly: the platform 'allows us to acquire customers ahead of sports betting regulation in new states,' a frank acknowledgment that prediction market status under CFTC jurisdiction allows Flutter to operate in states where its sportsbook cannot. Flutter's shares fell more than 11% on August 5 after the CEO change announcement alongside Q2 results that narrowly missed EBITDA estimates.
Rothera's performance in its first partial quarter is the most compressed growth story in the earnings round. Founders Tom Chippas and Matt Trudeau wrote in a public post that the exchange took approximately 30% average market share compared with the largest market in the specific contracts it listed — a figure that implies Rothera outcompeted Kalshi or Polymarket in the individual markets where it chose to compete, rather than spreading thinly across all available contracts. The World Cup served as Rothera's stress test: the founders described the performance as 'evidence that our technology and operations can perform under sustained pressure at significant scale.' The $156 million in Q2 event contracts revenue from Robinhood — Rothera's parent platform — positions Robinhood as the largest publicly reported prediction market revenue generator in Q2 on a pure revenue basis, ahead of Coinbase's annualized $100 million figure. The NFL season, beginning in September, will be the first test of whether these platforms can convert the prediction market audience from politically-oriented traders into sports event contract volume at scale. Every CEO on an earnings call this week explicitly cited it.
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Recent updates
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Now Taking Bets on Clinical Trials. Researchers Say That Is a Structural Integrity Problem.
Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing users to bet on the outcomes of clinical drug trials and FDA approval decisions. Researchers running those trials say the markets create direct financial incentives for people with access to trial data — pharmacists, coordinators, investigators — to tamper with results. Kalshi argues the markets are no different from stock market short sellers and will provide valuable information about drug development. Critics call the whole thing 'ghastly.' The debate represents the most ethically serious challenge prediction markets have faced.
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Polymarket has signed a deal with Tennis Data Innovations, the joint venture between the ATP Tour and ATP Media Holdings, to become the tour's official prediction market provider. The agreement covers approximately 20,000 matches per season across the ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour, with official live data and odds supplied by Sportradar — which will also provide integrity monitoring services. US users will get integrated live streaming alongside real-time prediction market contracts. It is Polymarket's second major data and streaming partnership in two days, following the Genius Sports deal on August 5.
Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees — One Week After Novig Did the Same With the Mets
Polymarket has announced a partnership with the New York Yankees making it the team's official prediction market partner for the remainder of the 2026 MLB season. The deal includes Polymarket branding at Yankee Stadium, rotating home plate signage during locally televised games, and exclusive fan experiences. It comes one week after the New York Mets announced an equivalent deal with Novig — meaning both New York MLB franchises now have an official prediction market partner, and two of the first three MLB prediction market partnerships are both in New York City.