Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+
Prediction markets featured prominently in Q2 2026 earnings reports from DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter. DraftKings' prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion to $11 billion in annualized volume between April and July, with CEO Jason Robins expecting 'millions' of users by NFL season. Robinhood's Rothera generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth in prediction market revenue, surpassing $100 million annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.
Four publicly traded companies — DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter — reported meaningful prediction market revenue in their second quarter 2026 earnings calls, the first earnings cycle in which prediction markets appeared as a distinct line item or business unit for all four simultaneously. The numbers in aggregate describe a category that has moved from novelty to material contributor faster than any comparable segment in recent financial services history. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told CNBC that annualized total volume on the company's prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion by July — a nearly fivefold increase in three months — since launching in December 2025. 'We had over 600,000 customers so far engaged with our predictions offering, and that's just going to explode this NFL season. I'm expecting millions,' Robins said. Robinhood's Rothera exchange, launched in June as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in the second quarter and has traded over 3.5 billion contracts to date, capturing approximately 7-8% of total market share among CFTC-regulated venues within two months of launch. Coinbase reported prediction market revenue growth of 106% quarter over quarter, with annualized Q2 revenue from the segment surpassing $100 million, though KeyBanc analysts noted the run rate came in below their estimates.
The most analytically striking data point in the DraftKings earnings was not the volume number but the customer overlap figure. Robins said that internal data shows only around 1% of DraftKings sportsbook customers also use the largest prediction market operator in states where sports betting is legal. His interpretation: prediction markets are driving 'a fundamentally different and largely professional audience,' with 80-90% of prediction market consumer volume coming from betting syndicates and institutional traders. If the overlap data is accurate, prediction markets and sports betting are not in direct competition for the same retail dollars — they are attracting a different type of participant altogether. That finding, if it holds at scale, has significant implications for the state-level regulatory debate: eleven state attorneys general have sued on the premise that prediction markets are a substitute for state-licensed sports betting. A 1% customer overlap does not obviously describe substitutes. Robins also noted that DraftKings' position owning three market layers simultaneously — brokerage, exchange, and market maker — gives it structural advantages that pure-play prediction market operators do not have.
Flutter's announcement that FanDuel Predicts will move its sports and novelty contracts from CME to Crypto.com is a significant infrastructure signal. The CME Group is one of the world's largest and oldest futures exchanges; Flutter launched FanDuel Predicts on CME in December 2025. Moving the sports and novelty book to Crypto.com — which holds its own CFTC-regulated designated contract market licence — while keeping financial contracts on CME implies that crypto-native CFTC exchanges are better suited to the speed and product design requirements of sports event contracts than traditional derivatives infrastructure. CEO Peter Jackson, who is departing in favor of Flutter's international division head Dan Taylor, said on the call that the migration would 'ensure we can deliver new products at pace ahead of the NFL season start.' Jackson also described FanDuel Predicts' state regulatory advantage directly: the platform 'allows us to acquire customers ahead of sports betting regulation in new states,' a frank acknowledgment that prediction market status under CFTC jurisdiction allows Flutter to operate in states where its sportsbook cannot. Flutter's shares fell more than 11% on August 5 after the CEO change announcement alongside Q2 results that narrowly missed EBITDA estimates.
Rothera's performance in its first partial quarter is the most compressed growth story in the earnings round. Founders Tom Chippas and Matt Trudeau wrote in a public post that the exchange took approximately 30% average market share compared with the largest market in the specific contracts it listed — a figure that implies Rothera outcompeted Kalshi or Polymarket in the individual markets where it chose to compete, rather than spreading thinly across all available contracts. The World Cup served as Rothera's stress test: the founders described the performance as 'evidence that our technology and operations can perform under sustained pressure at significant scale.' The $156 million in Q2 event contracts revenue from Robinhood — Rothera's parent platform — positions Robinhood as the largest publicly reported prediction market revenue generator in Q2 on a pure revenue basis, ahead of Coinbase's annualized $100 million figure. The NFL season, beginning in September, will be the first test of whether these platforms can convert the prediction market audience from politically-oriented traders into sports event contract volume at scale. Every CEO on an earnings call this week explicitly cited it.
Operators mentioned in this article
Recent updates
Kalshi's Parlays Drive Back-to-Back $5B Days — and Hand Critics Their Strongest Argument
Kalshi traded a record $5.33 billion on November 7 and $5.36 billion on November 8, with multi-leg parlay-style 'combos' making up roughly 75% of both days' volume. Its 30-day volume topped $100 billion. But the parlay dominance cuts against the platform's legal defense: parlays are a quintessential sportsbook product, and the American Gaming Association has told the Second Circuit that parlays make up about two-thirds of Kalshi's volume and should be treated as sports bets. The implied house edge on 10-plus-leg combos is around 25%, undercutting the argument that these are neutral financial instruments rather than gambling.
Cruz Bill Would Require State or Tribal Approval for Sports Contracts — a Bipartisan Legislative Threat Emerges
Senator Ted Cruz, who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee, is preparing a bill that would bar federally regulated prediction markets from offering gambling-tied event contracts, including sports, unless a state or tribal government authorizes them. It would not ban the contracts nationwide but would require platforms to obtain approval jurisdiction by jurisdiction, resembling state-by-state sportsbook regulation. The proposal arrives as Democrats take control of both chambers after the midterms, creating a potential bipartisan reckoning: a Republican committee chair and a newly skeptical Democratic majority both eyeing restrictions on a sector that had relied on federal protection.
CFTC Tells Platforms to Stop Geofencing States — Directly Colliding With State Court Orders
The CFTC issued an interpretation on November 5 of its 'impartial access' core principle, telling regulated exchanges including Kalshi and Polymarket to drop state-by-state geographic blocks within 30 days or explain why they cannot. The demand collides head-on with existing state court orders that require the platforms to geofence: Washington ordered Kalshi to geofence in August, and Michigan ordered it to use licensed geolocation to block the state in September, with a $500,000 daily fine for violations. Chairman Michael Selig framed the interpretation as a uniformity requirement. The platforms are now caught between a federal demand to unblock states and state court orders to block them.