● Live Wisconsin AG suit vs Kalshi & Polymarket pending · NY/IL insider-trading orders in effect · Updated May 2026
← News & Updates
RegulationSports

CFTC Drops Enforcement Case Against Kalshi Sports Markets

The CFTC ended its legal challenge to Kalshi's sports event contracts, confirming Kalshi can offer sports outcomes as regulated event contracts under its DCM licence. A landmark ruling for regulated prediction markets.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally dropped its enforcement action against Kalshi's sports event contracts in May 2025, ending a legal dispute that began when the agency challenged whether sports outcome contracts were permissible under Kalshi's Designated Contract Market licence.

Kalshi had launched sports contracts in late 2024, arguing that the CFTC's own self-certifying process for DCM products permitted the markets under its existing licence. The agency disagreed and sought to block the sports contracts, setting up a court battle. Kalshi prevailed at the district court level, and the CFTC subsequently withdrew its appeal in May 2025.

The ruling has industry-wide implications. It confirmed that a fully CFTC-regulated exchange can offer sports outcome event contracts, opening a legal pathway for other CFTC-licensed entities (like Robinhood's future exchange and Novig's pending DCM application) to list similar products. It also reinforced that the DCM self-certification process, not CFTC pre-approval, governs what products a licensed exchange can list.

For US sports bettors, the practical impact was immediate: Kalshi expanded its sports coverage to include more leagues, more contract types, and eventually NFL parlays in partnership with Robinhood. Sports contracts are currently available in 35+ US states, with New Jersey a notable exception due to the state's own regulatory position on federally-licensed event contracts.

Operators mentioned in this article


Recent updates


Kalshi Suspends Congressional Candidate for Trading on Own Race — Senate Already Banned Members

Kalshi disclosed on August 31 that it suspended North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for three years and fined her $2,589 for trading on her own race — the first publicly known enforcement action against a candidate for prediction market insider trading. Kalshi said it found multiple politicians trading on races they were involved in, including former Congressman George Santos. The Senate had unanimously banned its members and staffers from prediction market trading on April 30. CNN published a major feature on September 24 documenting election officials' concerns about disinformation and insider trading risk from prediction markets as the midterms approach.

Pew Research: Prediction Market Volume Doubled May-July, Sports Now Largest Category

A Pew Research Center analysis published September 23 found that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from May to July 2026 — rising from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July — driven primarily by sports contracts. Sports is now the largest trading category on both platforms. During the FIFA World Cup in June and July, Kalshi's monthly sports volume reached $58 billion. Over the same period, Americans wagered roughly $40 billion at licensed sportsbooks — suggesting prediction market sports volume has approached or exceeded licensed sports betting in dollar terms.

Democrats Now 60% Senate, 90% House Favorites on Prediction Markets — Biggest Shift Since 2024

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved decisively toward Democratic control of both congressional chambers in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are priced at approximately 60% to win Senate control (Republicans 40%) and roughly 90% to win House control as of September 21. Republicans had been at 80%+ in Senate control markets when the market opened in November 2024. The shift began in February 2026 following the Iran war and has accelerated through fall as rising gas prices pushed Trump's approval ratings lower. More than 500 active midterm markets are live across Kalshi and Polymarket combined.