The 2026 World Cup Is the First Mega-Event for US Prediction Markets — Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record $7B Weekly Volume Going In
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City with global wagers projected to top $50 billion — the biggest betting event in history. It is also the first World Cup where US traders can use prediction markets at full scale: Kalshi and Polymarket entered the week at a record $7 billion in combined weekly volume, Kalshi lists nearly 500 tournament markets, and a SEON survey puts prediction markets second only to licensed sportsbooks as the preferred way to bet the tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday, June 11 in Mexico City and runs six weeks to the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — 48 teams, 104 matches, and the largest betting event ever staged. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects global wagers could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion at Qatar 2022, driven by 40 additional matches, North American time zones, and dramatically broader legal access in the US: about 65% of the US population now has legal sports betting, versus roughly 40% during the last tournament, per the American Gaming Association. Deutsche Bank pegs US handle alone at about $3.3 billion, with FanDuel taking roughly $1.3 billion, DraftKings $1.1 billion, BetMGM $250 million, Caesars $120 million, and Penn's theScore Bet $83 million.
For prediction markets this is the first mega-event at full scale, and the platforms enter it at record levels. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley reported Kalshi and Polymarket combined grew 13% week-over-week to $7 billion in weekly trading volume — an all-time high — in the run-up to the opener. Kalshi lists nearly 500 unique tournament markets, with the most volume on the July 19 final, where Spain and France lead the implied probabilities. The infrastructure is being built for the moment too: Kalshi just signed a data deal with Sportradar covering professional soccer, baseball, hockey, and UFC, putting institutional-grade settlement data behind its sports markets. And the consumer shift is measurable: a SEON survey found 29% of respondents prefer licensed betting apps for World Cup wagers, but 19% now choose prediction markets — ahead of social casinos, crypto platforms, and offshore books. For a product category that barely existed at retail scale during Qatar 2022, second place is the story.
The competitive geometry is unusual. Fanatics, FanDuel, and DraftKings have all launched prediction products but limit sports event contracts to states where they lack gaming licenses — using CFTC-regulated markets as a wedge into territory their sportsbooks cannot reach. DraftKings' May numbers, released Tuesday, sent its stock up 11%: $3.1 billion in annualized total volume (+34% MoM) and $1.3 billion annualized consumer volume — still small against its roughly $54 billion in 2025 sportsbook handle, but growing at a pace no sportsbook product line matches. Macquarie expects the tournament to add roughly 2-5% to 2027 operator EBITDA, with Flutter best positioned globally; CEO Peter Jackson's framing on CNBC captures the scale gap: about 200 million people watch a Super Bowl, while 1.5 billion watched the Qatar final and five billion watched some of that tournament. Sports-data firms Genius Sports and Sportradar sell the picks and shovels to both sides.
Two caveats belong in any honest preview. First, the legal backdrop: six states are in active federal litigation over whether prediction markets are even lawful under state gambling codes, and while the tournament conveniently ends on July 19 — before Minnesota's August 1 felony ban takes effect — a mid-tournament preliminary-injunction ruling in any of the pending cases could change platform availability in individual states with little notice. Our litigation scoreboard tracks every case. Second, the responsible-gambling concern is louder than usual and deserves to be. Gamban co-founder Matt Zarb-Cousin told CNBC that daily matches for over a month make habitual gambling materially more likely: "For the gambling industry, the World Cup will be like March Madness on steroids." The SEON survey adds an uncomfortable data point — nearly a quarter of respondents admitted to multi-accounting for promotions, and millennials over-index on every risk dimension simultaneously: betting intent, prediction-market use, crypto platforms, and multiple accounts. A six-week event with 104 matches is exactly the environment where position-sizing discipline and deposit limits earn their keep.
Operators mentioned in this article
Recent updates
Prediction Markets Hit Wall Street Earnings Season: DraftKings at $11B Annualized Volume, Robinhood at $156M Revenue, Coinbase at $100M+
Prediction markets featured prominently in Q2 2026 earnings reports from DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Flutter. DraftKings' prediction platform grew from $2.3 billion to $11 billion in annualized volume between April and July, with CEO Jason Robins expecting 'millions' of users by NFL season. Robinhood's Rothera generated $156 million in event contracts revenue in its first partial quarter. Coinbase reported 106% quarter-over-quarter growth in prediction market revenue, surpassing $100 million annualized. Flutter is moving FanDuel Predicts from CME to Crypto.com ahead of the NFL season.
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Now Taking Bets on Clinical Trials. Researchers Say That Is a Structural Integrity Problem.
Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing users to bet on the outcomes of clinical drug trials and FDA approval decisions. Researchers running those trials say the markets create direct financial incentives for people with access to trial data — pharmacists, coordinators, investigators — to tamper with results. Kalshi argues the markets are no different from stock market short sellers and will provide valuable information about drug development. Critics call the whole thing 'ghastly.' The debate represents the most ethically serious challenge prediction markets have faced.
Polymarket Becomes the ATP Tour's Official Prediction Market Provider — With Sportradar Supplying Integrity Monitoring
Polymarket has signed a deal with Tennis Data Innovations, the joint venture between the ATP Tour and ATP Media Holdings, to become the tour's official prediction market provider. The agreement covers approximately 20,000 matches per season across the ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour, with official live data and odds supplied by Sportradar — which will also provide integrity monitoring services. US users will get integrated live streaming alongside real-time prediction market contracts. It is Polymarket's second major data and streaming partnership in two days, following the Genius Sports deal on August 5.