Prediction Markets
in Michigan
Michigan is notable in the US prediction market landscape for one specific enforcement action: Manifold Markets is explicitly unavailable to Michigan residents. The Michigan Gaming Control Board has been active in restricting sweepstakes-style gaming platforms. CFTC-regulated platforms (Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt) are fully available. Michigan has a 4.25% flat state income tax rate on prediction market winnings.
Which platforms work in Michigan?
All categories available in Michigan: sports, economics, politics, weather. CFTC federal jurisdiction applies.
QCEX invite-only. Michigan has not specifically blocked Polymarket QCEX. Non-US Polymarket platform is restricted.
Manifold Markets is explicitly unavailable in Michigan. Michigan Gaming Control Board has taken action against sweepstakes-style platforms.
CFTC no-action exemption. US politics only, $850 per contract cap. Available in Michigan.
Sports and economic event contracts available in Michigan. Robinhood Predictions (via Kalshi/ForecastEx) fully operational.
Michigan Gaming Control Board and sweepstakes platforms
Michigan is one of only four US states where Manifold Markets is explicitly unavailable (the others are Delaware, Idaho, and Washington). The restriction stems from Michigan's Gaming Control and Revenue Act, which the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) interprets to cover sweepstakes-style platforms that award real-money prizes based on chance or contest outcomes.
Manifold's Sweepcash layer, which allows real-money prize redemption: triggered MGCB scrutiny. Michigan is among the most aggressive states in applying gaming law to non-traditional gaming platforms, with a history of enforcement against daily fantasy sports and sweepstakes casino operators before those industries were separately regulated.
Key distinction: Manifold's play-money Mana markets are still accessible in Michigan: the restriction applies to the real-money Sweepcash redemption feature. CFTC-regulated platforms (Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt) are unaffected because they operate under federal derivatives law, not Michigan's gaming statute.
Kalshi and Robinhood fully available
Despite Michigan's aggressive gaming enforcement, CFTC-regulated prediction markets are fully accessible. The October 2024 federal injunction in the Kalshi vs CFTC case established that federal preemption applies: state gaming regulators cannot restrict federally-licensed derivatives exchanges. This makes Michigan an important test case for the federal preemption argument.
Kalshi
All categories available: sports, economics, politics, weather, and crypto. The full platform works normally for Michigan residents.
Robinhood
Prediction market contracts (via Kalshi and ForecastEx) are fully available through Robinhood's brokerage platform in Michigan.
PredictIt
US politics-only platform with $850 per-contract cap. Available in Michigan under CFTC no-action exemption.
Polymarket QCEX
Waitlist-only for all US users. Michigan has not specifically restricted QCEX beyond the general US waitlist process.
Michigan state income tax on prediction market winnings
Michigan has a simple flat income tax rate of 4.25% on all ordinary income, including prediction market winnings. No graduated brackets: everyone pays the same rate.
Kalshi and PredictIt issue 1099-MISC forms. Net profits are taxed as ordinary income at your federal bracket rate (10–37%). Losses are deductible up to $3,000/year.
Michigan's 4.25% flat rate is straightforward for prediction market traders. Combined with federal rates, a Michigan resident in the 22% federal bracket pays roughly 26.25% total on prediction market profits. Michigan follows the federal treatment of prediction market contracts as ordinary income.
How Michigan compares
Ohio
Open status, no restrictions: all prediction markets available including Manifold. 2.75%–3.5% income tax.
Neighbor stateIllinois
Caution: Governor Pritzker issued executive order in May 2026 against prediction market operators.
Neighbor stateWisconsin
Most aggressive state action: civil lawsuit filed by AG in May 2026 against Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood.