Kalshi Is Seeking a $40 Billion Valuation — Seven Weeks After Raising at $22 Billion
Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling the $22 billion figure from its May 2026 Series F, according to the Financial Times. The company's annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, and CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed the company is in early IPO discussions — though a listing will not happen before 2027. Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume hit $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May.
Kalshi is seeking a new round of outside investment at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, according to the Financial Times, just seven weeks after closing a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation. The funding round talks come alongside a public disclosure of the company's revenue trajectory: annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, versus approximately $1 billion for Polymarket. The valuation climb tells the story of the year in compressed form: Kalshi was worth around $2 billion in June 2025, $11 billion by December, $22 billion in May 2026, and is now targeting $40 billion. The investors from the Series F — Coatue, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley — have seen their stake roughly double in value in under two months.
CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed to CNBC that the company is in early conversations about an eventual IPO but said emphatically that a public offering will not happen in 2026. Reports suggest late 2027 or 2028 as the realistic window, pending market conditions. The IPO discussion is itself a milestone: Kalshi's entire existence until this year was a regulatory fight to establish that its products were legal. That fight is not over — nine states are in active litigation — but the company is now simultaneously defending its right to operate in court and planning what a public offering might look like. Those two things coexist because the CFTC's legal posture strongly suggests the federal-preemption arguments will ultimately hold.
The combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly trading volume for June was $44.8 billion, a 75% surge from May's $25.66 billion — driven overwhelmingly by World Cup trading. Kalshi claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity by volume. Institutional trading volume grew 800% in the six months ended June 2026. These are not the numbers of a niche product: they are approaching the scale of mid-tier US futures exchanges, which is precisely the comparison Kalshi wants analysts and potential IPO investors to make. The CFTC's proposed rule — open for public comment until July 27 — would formalize the regulatory regime that underpins all of it, converting the agency's litigation posture into codified regulation.
The $40 billion target is also a statement about competitive positioning. Polymarket reached $1 billion in annualized revenue six weeks after its US launch, which is extraordinary growth — but it is half of Kalshi's current figure. Bernstein analysts noted in a June 29 report that Kalshi owns the exchange stack and has built federally regulated infrastructure, but that it 'trails on distribution,' leaving it plausibly a target as well as an acquirer. The report named Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings as potential acquirers. Mansour's IPO positioning is a direct response to that framing: a $40 billion public valuation makes a friendly acquisition harder to execute and establishes Kalshi as a standalone financial exchange rather than an asset to be absorbed into a larger consumer platform.
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Kalshi Suspends Congressional Candidate for Trading on Own Race — Senate Already Banned Members
Kalshi disclosed on August 31 that it suspended North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for three years and fined her $2,589 for trading on her own race — the first publicly known enforcement action against a candidate for prediction market insider trading. Kalshi said it found multiple politicians trading on races they were involved in, including former Congressman George Santos. The Senate had unanimously banned its members and staffers from prediction market trading on April 30. CNN published a major feature on September 24 documenting election officials' concerns about disinformation and insider trading risk from prediction markets as the midterms approach.
Pew Research: Prediction Market Volume Doubled May-July, Sports Now Largest Category
A Pew Research Center analysis published September 23 found that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from May to July 2026 — rising from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July — driven primarily by sports contracts. Sports is now the largest trading category on both platforms. During the FIFA World Cup in June and July, Kalshi's monthly sports volume reached $58 billion. Over the same period, Americans wagered roughly $40 billion at licensed sportsbooks — suggesting prediction market sports volume has approached or exceeded licensed sports betting in dollar terms.
Democrats Now 60% Senate, 90% House Favorites on Prediction Markets — Biggest Shift Since 2024
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved decisively toward Democratic control of both congressional chambers in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are priced at approximately 60% to win Senate control (Republicans 40%) and roughly 90% to win House control as of September 21. Republicans had been at 80%+ in Senate control markets when the market opened in November 2024. The shift began in February 2026 following the Iran war and has accelerated through fall as rising gas prices pushed Trump's approval ratings lower. More than 500 active midterm markets are live across Kalshi and Polymarket combined.