Robinhood Becomes Fastest-Growing Prediction Market With 12B+ Contracts in 2025
Robinhood processed over 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and acquired MIAXdx to build its own CFTC-licensed exchange, positioning it to compete directly with Kalshi and ForecastEx.
Robinhood's prediction markets hub, launched in March 2025, became the fastest-growing retail entry point to event-contract trading in the United States within its first year. The company disclosed that more than 12 billion contracts were traded on the platform in 2025 and that over one million users actively trade prediction markets. That adoption curve reflects both Robinhood's existing 26-million-strong user base and the ease of adding event contracts to a platform already used for stocks, ETFs, and crypto.
In January 2026, Robinhood acquired MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed designated contract market (DCM). The acquisition signals that Robinhood intends to operate its own prediction market exchange rather than relying indefinitely on ForecastEx (political and economic contracts) and Kalshi (sports contracts). Analysts expect Robinhood's own exchange to go live in mid-2026, potentially offering a full suite of event contracts (sports, politics, economics, and potentially weather) from a single in-house licensed venue.
The sports contract expansion accelerated in December 2025 when Robinhood added NFL parlay and prop bet-style event contracts via its Kalshi integration, ahead of the NFL playoffs. Sports contracts are currently available in 35+ US states including the major markets of California, Texas, and Florida.
Robinhood's fee structure ($0.02/contract: $0.01 Robinhood + $0.01 exchange fee) is competitive against traditional sportsbooks but slightly more expensive than Novig's commission-free model or Kalshi's profit-only-fee structure for losing trades. With its own DCM, Robinhood could restructure its pricing to remain the most consumer-friendly option in the embedded brokerage segment.
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Kalshi Suspends Congressional Candidate for Trading on Own Race — Senate Already Banned Members
Kalshi disclosed on August 31 that it suspended North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for three years and fined her $2,589 for trading on her own race — the first publicly known enforcement action against a candidate for prediction market insider trading. Kalshi said it found multiple politicians trading on races they were involved in, including former Congressman George Santos. The Senate had unanimously banned its members and staffers from prediction market trading on April 30. CNN published a major feature on September 24 documenting election officials' concerns about disinformation and insider trading risk from prediction markets as the midterms approach.
Pew Research: Prediction Market Volume Doubled May-July, Sports Now Largest Category
A Pew Research Center analysis published September 23 found that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from May to July 2026 — rising from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July — driven primarily by sports contracts. Sports is now the largest trading category on both platforms. During the FIFA World Cup in June and July, Kalshi's monthly sports volume reached $58 billion. Over the same period, Americans wagered roughly $40 billion at licensed sportsbooks — suggesting prediction market sports volume has approached or exceeded licensed sports betting in dollar terms.
Democrats Now 60% Senate, 90% House Favorites on Prediction Markets — Biggest Shift Since 2024
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved decisively toward Democratic control of both congressional chambers in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are priced at approximately 60% to win Senate control (Republicans 40%) and roughly 90% to win House control as of September 21. Republicans had been at 80%+ in Senate control markets when the market opened in November 2024. The shift began in February 2026 following the Iran war and has accelerated through fall as rising gas prices pushed Trump's approval ratings lower. More than 500 active midterm markets are live across Kalshi and Polymarket combined.